Decision Making – Decision Making Methods

Analytical – You use Analytical Decision Making when buying a car.

Uses logical thinking processes to weigh information and calculate an optimal choice. Multiple options compared, ideally via a SWOT analysis, for best option. Can have the input of many within a system/ team before a final decision. 

Better when:

• Time is not a factor.
• Decision makers lack the experience to make sound intuitive decisions.
• The best possible outcome is needed e.g. could have serious safety consequences.

Note: Even experienced crew should use analytical decision making in this case.

Groupthink is a particular risk for analytical DM. Pressure to conform with the leader!

Pressure exerted to conform within a group, when an individual/s differs in opinion. Review all options systematically.

Rule-based – Best course of action determined / judged by experts for all to apply. Strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats (SWOT) analysis is conducted much earlier by experts.

These decisions are quite quick as they follow predetermined pathways. For example:

• CASA Rules
• Legal System
• RPAS Manual
• Company Procedures
  • If an aircraft is in grave and imminent threat requiring immediate assistance a Mayday call is given over the radio….
  • If a Critical Battery Alert is alarmed, the RPAS returns to land…

Creative – No obvious solutions exist. The knowledge base of self or team is used to identify a workable solution. As more time is typically available, time can permit communicating with experts to assist with the process. SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis is conducted to test the workability of the created solution. Ask the class are there any movies that they can remember this happening?

Accidents where this has been relevant to aviation: Apollo 13 space mission.

Intuitive  – Using your intuition (based on experience) to decide how to respond.

The long term memory accessed for a workable solution. Experience and judgement is used to identify a quick, workable solution. A mental simulation (in your head) will test the intuitive solution for any problems within the current environment and will modify as required.

Quickly thinking, acting and evaluating as the problem arises and evolves. Mainly relies on experience.

Better when:

• Time is critical.
• Decision makers are experienced in the given situation.
• The situation is constantly changing or ambiguous, requiring you to ‘think on your feet’.
• A satisfactory outcome is sufficient.

Accidents where this has been relevant to aviation: Airbus A320 landing on the Hudson, where Sully does everything right, even when he goes against formal procedures in starting the APU (auxiliary power unit, the engine in the tail that supplies electricity and pressurized air).

Feature – event relationship

We sometimes call Intuitive Decision Making: ‘Cue Based Decision Making. What are cues?

• Involves a Feature – Event relationship.
• Cue-based processing involves rapidly recognising and interpreting complex patterns of information using associations between specific features (or cues) and events.
• It is an automatic or unconscious process. We get a gut feeling for how we should respond before we have consciously defined the problem and considered a solution.

Consider this photo. If you were heading towards this, would you change course?

• With experience pilots learn to recognise weather cues and know which weather is safe to fly through and which should be avoided.
• A newer pilot would have to do more conscious decision making to determine whether this would be safe or not.

In aviation, operational cues are often the ‘tricks of the trade’ that you learn from other pilots or instructors e.g. things to look out for.